Teach someone to fish, and you feed them for life

You'll need your own fishing boat, top-of-the-line sonar, and plenty of fuel. You should have at least $100,000 in upfront capital before starting. Consider a bigger boat as it reduces your chance of capsizing. Other fishers have big boats, if that matters to you. Bringing a friend helps—for conversation, not for catching fish. Results will vary depending on timing, weather, and luck. Fish are never guaranteed. Seek professional advice before casting your line.

I’ll discuss my investment framework and mental models that help me make better decisions. Let's skip the fluff and dive straight into what matters:

finding ideas with asymmetrical return profiles

Investment Principles and Beliefs

Foundation of Value:

  • Value exists naturally; money estimates it

  • Value resides in solving human needs

  • Companies transform inputs into value

  • Time reveals value; stocks chase expectations

Market Dynamics:

  • Markets seek efficiency, unless obstructed

  • Markets reflect and shape collective behaviour

  • Prices flow from supply and demand curves

  • Competition is constant and pervasive

  • Bull markets place a premium on promises

  • Bear markets discount economic reality

Investment Mentality:

  • Price is what I pay, value is what I get

  • Volatility and uncertainty creates opportunity

  • Risk is permanent capital loss

  • Relative advantage outweighs absolute

  • Compounding works best undisturbed

  • Accounting measures money, not value

  • Success favors those who outlast failure

  • Failure favors those who ignore its lessons

Behavioural Discipline:

  • Be self-aware: edge, conviction, temperament

  • Separate facts from opinions; label each

  • Speculation is ok; set limits, have fun

  • FOMO and fear is ok; feel it, don’t obey it

Investment Process:

  • Refine the process, transcend outcomes

  • Systems-level thinking reveals incentives

  • Simplicity enables clarity

  • Numbers ground narratives

  • Cash flow signals value creation

Reducing Risk:

  • Avoid weak capital structures

  • Avoid misaligned management

  • Avoid premium valuations

  • Avoid secular headwinds

  • Wait for capital scarcity in cycles

  • Enter commodities near cash cost

  • Don’t make time your enemy

  • Don’t bet against human ingenuity

  • Don’t bet against human stupidity

Enhancing Upside:

  • Find good industries

  • Find optionality

  • Find shifts in narrative

  • Find managers with excellent track records

  • Find managers with shareholder alignment

  • Find uncertainty with low risk

  • Find inevitable long-term outcomes

  • Find ecosystems where everyone prospers

Happy Fishing!